On Tuesday (April 7th) during Asian trading, US crude oil traded around $112.76 per barrel, after rising in volatile trading on Monday. US President Donald Trump recently stated that he was "still not satisfied" with the progress of related negotiations and hinted at possible tougher measures. This statement quickly boosted market risk aversion. At the same time, Iran signaled a possible expansion of its attacks on energy infrastructure, further escalating market concerns about the stability of energy supplies in the Middle East. Against this backdrop, the geopolitical risk premium in crude oil prices rose significantly, becoming the core factor driving up oil prices.

On the other hand, some hedging factors also emerged on the supply side. OPEC+ announced a slight increase in production of approximately 206,000 barrels per day in May, but given the current transportation constraints, there remains considerable uncertainty as to whether the new supply can smoothly enter the market. This means that although nominal supply has increased, the actual effective supply may not have improved significantly, thus weakening the suppressive effect of increased production on oil prices. The market will continue to focus on changes in American Petroleum Institute (API) inventory data in the short term. If the data shows a larger-than-expected decline in inventories, it will strengthen expectations of resilient demand and further support oil prices; conversely, an unexpected accumulation of inventories could trigger a short-term pullback.

On the daily chart, WTI crude oil prices remain within an overall upward channel, but prices have approached previous highs, forming significant technical resistance. The key resistance level is currently in the $115-$118 range; failure to break through this area could trigger profit-taking. Support levels are concentrated at the $105 and $100 psychological levels, forming a medium-term bullish defense. Momentum indicators show a slowdown in upward momentum, suggesting increased risk of chasing the rally in the short term.

On the 4-hour chart, oil prices are exhibiting a high-level consolidation structure, with the short-term trading range gradually narrowing, indicating increased divergence between bulls and bears. Technically, the RSI is in a high-level consolidation range, without a clear overbought pullback signal, but the momentum is weakening, indicating a slowdown in the upward pace. If the price falls below $105, it may open up room for a pullback; if it breaks through $118, it may start a new round of trending market. Today: Buy at $110.00, stop loss at $107.30, target $116.00.

Disclaimer: The article is contributed by the market analyst from Bitop market observation team. The content is solely for personal opinions and sharing. The analysis is time-sensitive and provided for reference and discussion only. It does not constitute any investment advice. The market is risky, so investing should be done cautiously